Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Univest Financial Corporation (UVSP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.27 - $171.58$101.62
Multi-Stage$52.87 - $57.82$55.30
Blended Fair Value$78.46
Current Price$30.02
Upside161.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.17%6.69%0.850.860.850.810.600.800.810.730.580.52
YoY Growth---0.83%1.80%4.38%34.44%-25.17%-0.26%10.31%25.11%13.41%15.50%
Dividend Yield--3.01%4.23%3.56%3.03%2.11%4.93%3.23%2.64%2.26%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3910.876.52
Cash Retained (M)61.7861.7861.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.39-10.87-6.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.3950.9155.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)29.1229.1229.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.751.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.751.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate4.69%5.69%6.69%
Fair Value$67.27$101.62$171.58
Upside / Downside124.10%238.51%471.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.9591.9097.14102.67108.51114.69118.13
Payout Ratio28.95%41.16%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1837.8351.8467.3384.41103.22109.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate4.69%5.69%6.69%
Year 1 PV (M)34.5634.8935.22
Year 2 PV (M)43.2844.1144.95
Year 3 PV (M)51.3652.8454.36
Year 4 PV (M)58.8361.1163.46
Year 5 PV (M)65.7368.9372.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,285.931,348.531,413.54
Equity Value (M)1,539.691,610.421,683.78
Shares Outstanding (M)29.1229.1229.12
Fair Value$52.87$55.30$57.82
Upside / Downside76.13%84.22%92.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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