Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Unitil Corporation (UTL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.58 - $82.22$59.24
Multi-Stage$62.44 - $68.43$65.38
Blended Fair Value$62.31
Current Price$52.15
Upside19.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.47%3.66%1.681.601.531.441.381.351.331.251.221.20
YoY Growth--4.96%4.38%6.36%4.42%2.26%1.38%6.86%2.00%2.04%2.08%
Dividend Yield--2.91%3.09%2.69%2.89%3.02%2.58%2.46%2.68%2.71%2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.365.853.51
Cash Retained (M)17.9017.9017.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.36-5.85-3.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.5412.0514.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.3816.3816.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.740.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.761.761.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.740.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.502.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Fair Value$43.58$59.24$82.22
Upside / Downside-16.44%13.60%57.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.8048.0449.3250.6351.9853.3654.96
Payout Ratio61.75%67.40%73.05%78.70%84.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.9032.3836.0339.8543.8448.0250.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate1.66%2.66%3.66%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9730.2730.56
Year 2 PV (M)30.8731.4832.09
Year 3 PV (M)31.6032.5433.50
Year 4 PV (M)32.1833.4634.78
Year 5 PV (M)32.6234.2635.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)865.70909.12954.27
Equity Value (M)1,022.931,071.121,121.17
Shares Outstanding (M)16.3816.3816.38
Fair Value$62.44$65.38$68.43
Upside / Downside19.72%25.36%31.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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