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Definitive Analysis

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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.35 - $328.69$203.25
Multi-Stage$118.95 - $129.61$124.18
Blended Fair Value$163.72
Current Price$83.53
Upside96.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.07%8.60%6.346.316.014.043.963.753.543.263.112.97
YoY Growth--0.50%5.04%48.79%1.87%5.64%6.08%8.66%4.84%4.67%6.72%
Dividend Yield--5.77%4.28%3.10%1.88%2.33%4.02%3.09%3.11%2.89%2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,395.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,100.40687.75412.65
Cash Retained (M)107.00107.00107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,100.40-687.75-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)-993.40-580.75-305.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)851.00851.00851.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.17-0.68-0.36
LTM Dividend per Share6.346.346.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.17-0.68-0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.175.665.98
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Fair Value$137.35$203.25$328.69
Upside / Downside64.43%143.32%293.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,502.005,811.836,139.106,484.806,849.977,235.707,452.78
Payout Ratio98.06%96.44%94.83%93.22%91.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,395.005,605.175,821.906,045.276,275.336,512.136,893.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate4.63%5.63%6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)5,113.795,162.665,211.54
Year 2 PV (M)4,845.884,938.965,032.91
Year 3 PV (M)4,590.694,723.584,859.00
Year 4 PV (M)4,347.644,516.244,689.70
Year 5 PV (M)4,116.184,316.674,524.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,212.6482,022.3085,979.00
Equity Value (M)101,226.81105,680.41110,297.06
Shares Outstanding (M)851.00851.00851.00
Fair Value$118.95$124.18$129.61
Upside / Downside42.40%48.67%55.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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