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Definitive Analysis

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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare PlansSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$931.11 - $3,815.67$2,418.96
Multi-Stage$462.73 - $505.95$483.95
Blended Fair Value$1,451.45
Current Price$345.30
Upside320.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.89%18.65%8.227.376.545.765.004.293.623.022.471.95
YoY Growth--11.42%12.85%13.47%15.18%16.58%18.43%19.73%22.64%26.60%31.13%
Dividend Yield--1.57%1.51%1.38%1.13%1.34%1.72%1.47%1.41%1.50%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,589.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,846.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,743.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,517.802,198.631,319.18
Cash Retained (M)9,743.009,743.009,743.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,517.80-2,198.63-1,319.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,225.207,544.388,423.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)916.75916.75916.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.798.239.19
LTM Dividend per Share8.568.568.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.798.239.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.3516.7917.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$931.11$2,418.96$3,815.67
Upside / Downside169.65%600.54%1,005.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,589.0018,732.2919,949.8821,246.6322,627.6624,098.4524,821.41
Payout Ratio44.61%53.69%62.76%71.84%80.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,846.0010,056.6012,521.4415,264.2118,310.6421,688.6122,959.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,289.689,377.749,465.79
Year 2 PV (M)10,684.4810,887.9911,093.42
Year 3 PV (M)12,031.5912,376.9712,728.90
Year 4 PV (M)13,332.2013,844.9214,372.28
Year 5 PV (M)14,587.4615,292.0416,023.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)364,283.53381,878.56400,147.00
Equity Value (M)424,208.94443,658.21463,830.97
Shares Outstanding (M)916.75916.75916.75
Fair Value$462.73$483.95$505.95
Upside / Downside34.01%40.15%46.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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