Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Union Bankshares, Inc. (UNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.61 - $67.70$49.38
Multi-Stage$55.24 - $60.58$57.86
Blended Fair Value$53.62
Current Price$24.76
Upside116.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.21%3.35%1.421.411.371.291.251.211.171.131.091.06
YoY Growth--0.45%2.87%6.11%3.30%3.42%3.25%3.44%4.29%2.55%3.86%
Dividend Yield--4.50%4.61%6.20%4.15%4.17%5.37%2.57%2.23%2.53%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)4.874.874.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.603.454.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.760.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.182.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$36.61$49.38$67.70
Upside / Downside47.84%99.44%173.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3311.6011.8712.1512.4312.7313.11
Payout Ratio57.02%63.62%70.21%76.81%83.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.467.388.339.3310.3711.4512.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)6.846.906.97
Year 2 PV (M)7.167.307.44
Year 3 PV (M)7.427.657.87
Year 4 PV (M)7.657.958.27
Year 5 PV (M)7.828.228.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)214.42225.21236.43
Equity Value (M)251.31263.23275.62
Shares Outstanding (M)4.554.554.55
Fair Value$55.24$57.86$60.58
Upside / Downside123.11%133.69%144.68%

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