Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.03 - $522.37$310.62
Multi-Stage$141.99 - $155.17$148.46
Blended Fair Value$229.54
Current Price$118.35
Upside93.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.35%6.43%1.161.121.081.000.910.890.880.780.740.69
YoY Growth--3.88%3.08%7.91%10.73%1.42%1.99%12.34%5.79%6.68%11.13%
Dividend Yield--1.15%1.32%1.87%1.03%0.98%1.93%1.34%1.08%0.98%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)492.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4175.8845.53
Cash Retained (M)492.51492.51492.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.41-75.88-45.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)371.10416.63446.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.586.266.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.307.988.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$206.03$310.62$522.37
Upside / Downside74.08%162.46%341.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.04646.50688.52733.27780.94831.70856.65
Payout Ratio18.87%33.09%47.32%61.55%75.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.53213.95325.81451.31591.74748.53792.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.02195.86197.70
Year 2 PV (M)267.94273.04278.20
Year 3 PV (M)336.58346.24356.08
Year 4 PV (M)400.20415.59431.42
Year 5 PV (M)459.08481.26504.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,793.238,169.648,560.46
Equity Value (M)9,451.059,881.6310,328.14
Shares Outstanding (M)66.5666.5666.56
Fair Value$141.99$148.46$155.17
Upside / Downside19.98%25.44%31.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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