Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.11 - $56.23$46.11
Multi-Stage$62.84 - $69.13$65.92
Blended Fair Value$56.02
Current Price$30.42
Upside84.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.07%-1.92%0.620.620.600.571.091.244.021.040.940.83
YoY Growth--0.30%1.92%5.28%-47.19%-12.66%-69.01%285.59%11.17%13.54%10.05%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.82%2.28%1.85%3.12%3.82%9.18%2.18%2.19%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2613.918.35
Cash Retained (M)95.0095.0095.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.26-13.91-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.7481.0986.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.2526.2526.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.773.093.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.773.093.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.393.713.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-1.15%-0.15%0.85%
Fair Value$37.11$46.11$56.23
Upside / Downside22.00%51.57%84.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.28111.11110.94110.78110.61110.44113.75
Payout Ratio14.63%29.70%44.78%59.85%74.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.2833.0149.6866.3082.8799.40105.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-1.15%-0.15%0.85%
Year 1 PV (M)30.2930.5930.90
Year 2 PV (M)41.8342.6943.54
Year 3 PV (M)51.2452.8154.41
Year 4 PV (M)58.7761.1863.67
Year 5 PV (M)64.6868.0271.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,402.841,475.251,550.62
Equity Value (M)1,649.651,730.541,814.64
Shares Outstanding (M)26.2526.2526.25
Fair Value$62.84$65.92$69.13
Upside / Downside106.58%116.71%127.24%

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