Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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United Security Bancshares (UBFO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.43 - $12.19$9.55
Multi-Stage$12.63 - $13.85$13.23
Blended Fair Value$11.39
Current Price$9.33
Upside22.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.18%0.00%0.480.460.430.430.430.430.270.170.000.00
YoY Growth--5.55%4.99%0.09%0.28%0.13%57.61%64.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.37%6.05%6.81%5.23%5.28%6.75%2.54%1.55%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)3.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.271.420.85
Cash Retained (M)3.023.023.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.27-1.42-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.741.602.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.2617.2617.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Fair Value$7.43$9.55$12.19
Upside / Downside-20.38%2.37%30.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.3711.5011.6411.7811.9212.0612.42
Payout Ratio73.45%76.76%80.07%83.38%86.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.358.839.329.8210.3310.8511.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Year 1 PV (M)8.158.238.31
Year 2 PV (M)7.948.108.26
Year 3 PV (M)7.727.958.19
Year 4 PV (M)7.497.808.11
Year 5 PV (M)7.267.638.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)179.50188.64198.15
Equity Value (M)218.06228.35239.04
Shares Outstanding (M)17.2617.2617.26
Fair Value$12.63$13.23$13.85
Upside / Downside35.38%41.77%48.40%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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