Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.35 - $39.98$32.76
Multi-Stage$45.45 - $49.89$47.63
Blended Fair Value$40.19
Current Price$36.30
Upside10.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.76%0.98%1.441.441.421.381.381.391.341.321.321.31
YoY Growth--0.08%1.47%2.71%-0.20%-0.20%3.19%1.48%0.53%0.46%0.40%
Dividend Yield--4.73%5.13%4.44%4.33%3.76%5.13%3.42%3.14%3.36%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.377.114.26
Cash Retained (M)29.4929.4929.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.37-7.11-4.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.1222.3825.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.0219.0219.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.181.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.181.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.622.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$26.35$32.76$39.98
Upside / Downside-27.41%-9.76%10.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.8556.8456.8456.8356.8256.8158.51
Payout Ratio48.14%56.51%64.88%73.25%81.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.3732.1236.8841.6346.3851.1354.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)29.4529.7530.05
Year 2 PV (M)31.0031.6332.27
Year 3 PV (M)32.0933.0734.08
Year 4 PV (M)32.7834.1335.51
Year 5 PV (M)33.1434.8536.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)705.94742.33780.20
Equity Value (M)864.41905.76948.73
Shares Outstanding (M)19.0219.0219.02
Fair Value$45.45$47.63$49.89
Upside / Downside25.22%31.21%37.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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