Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Molson Coors Canada Inc. (TPX-B.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.38 - $144.82$104.04
Multi-Stage$145.56 - $160.08$152.68
Blended Fair Value$128.36
Current Price$60.21
Upside113.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.63%2.54%1.701.741.550.700.642.051.631.740.190.38
YoY Growth---2.49%12.82%119.86%10.38%-68.87%25.45%-6.52%815.38%-50.00%-71.20%
Dividend Yield--2.82%2.58%2.99%1.30%1.23%5.10%2.59%2.23%0.19%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,038.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)373.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)664.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.70129.8177.89
Cash Retained (M)664.92664.92664.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.70-129.81-77.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)457.21535.10587.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.70206.70206.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.212.592.84
LTM Dividend per Share1.811.811.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.212.592.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.024.404.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$76.38$104.04$144.82
Upside / Downside26.86%72.79%140.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,038.511,054.471,070.671,087.111,103.821,120.771,154.40
Payout Ratio35.97%46.78%57.58%68.39%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)373.60493.27616.54743.47874.161,008.701,067.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.83%5.83%5.83%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)461.52466.11470.70
Year 2 PV (M)539.72550.51561.41
Year 3 PV (M)608.95627.30646.02
Year 4 PV (M)669.91696.96724.83
Year 5 PV (M)723.25759.94798.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,084.5728,458.6429,887.92
Equity Value (M)30,087.9231,559.4733,088.99
Shares Outstanding (M)206.70206.70206.70
Fair Value$145.56$152.68$160.08
Upside / Downside141.76%153.58%165.87%

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