Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thai Optical Group Public Company Limited (TOG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.53 - $134.82$103.50
Multi-Stage$17.17 - $18.76$17.95
Blended Fair Value$60.73
Current Price$7.10
Upside755.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.21%7.33%0.650.630.520.330.150.320.330.400.400.31
YoY Growth--3.11%21.13%57.57%120.00%-53.12%-3.03%-17.50%0.00%29.03%-3.13%
Dividend Yield--7.26%5.34%5.59%3.42%3.21%9.88%6.63%5.63%4.04%4.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)321.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)213.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.3140.1924.12
Cash Retained (M)108.33108.33108.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.31-40.19-24.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0268.1484.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.140.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.53$103.50$134.82
Upside / Downside400.43%1,357.76%1,798.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)321.55342.45364.71388.42413.67440.56453.77
Payout Ratio66.31%71.05%75.79%80.52%85.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)213.22243.31276.40312.77352.70396.50419.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)225.02227.16229.29
Year 2 PV (M)236.42240.92245.47
Year 3 PV (M)247.42254.53261.76
Year 4 PV (M)258.04267.97278.17
Year 5 PV (M)268.29281.25294.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,909.637,243.377,589.88
Equity Value (M)8,144.838,515.198,899.28
Shares Outstanding (M)474.32474.32474.32
Fair Value$17.17$17.95$18.76
Upside / Downside141.85%152.85%164.26%

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