Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.01 - $43.81$37.99
Multi-Stage$54.39 - $59.62$56.95
Blended Fair Value$47.47
Current Price$59.49
Upside-20.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.07%-2.29%2.102.012.001.612.042.462.873.583.302.99
YoY Growth--4.41%0.74%23.85%-21.01%-16.87%-14.43%-19.83%8.52%10.40%12.85%
Dividend Yield--4.54%4.20%5.09%2.78%3.34%11.32%6.96%6.93%8.67%8.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)411.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.2051.3830.83
Cash Retained (M)185.00185.00185.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.20-51.38-30.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.80133.63154.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.6067.6067.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.521.982.28
LTM Dividend per Share3.343.343.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.521.982.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.865.325.62
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate-4.29%-3.29%-2.29%
Fair Value$32.01$37.99$43.81
Upside / Downside-46.19%-36.14%-26.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)411.00397.48384.41371.77359.54347.71358.14
Payout Ratio54.99%61.99%68.99%76.00%83.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.00246.40265.21282.52298.41312.94331.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate-4.29%-3.29%-2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)221.17223.49225.80
Year 2 PV (M)213.69218.18222.71
Year 3 PV (M)204.33210.80217.41
Year 4 PV (M)193.73201.95210.43
Year 5 PV (M)182.36192.09202.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,661.492,803.472,951.44
Equity Value (M)3,676.783,849.974,030.02
Shares Outstanding (M)67.6067.6067.60
Fair Value$54.39$56.95$59.62
Upside / Downside-8.57%-4.27%0.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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