Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.66 - $118.00$91.49
Multi-Stage$88.74 - $97.14$92.86
Blended Fair Value$92.18
Current Price$66.21
Upside39.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.73%3.87%2.452.412.342.262.192.142.071.931.861.77
YoY Growth--1.56%2.82%3.55%3.37%2.36%3.38%7.26%3.85%4.69%5.95%
Dividend Yield--3.88%4.93%3.54%2.89%2.65%2.98%2.69%2.55%2.31%2.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9010.566.34
Cash Retained (M)48.8248.8248.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.90-10.56-6.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9238.2642.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.3214.3214.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.232.672.97
LTM Dividend per Share2.492.492.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.232.672.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.725.165.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Fair Value$70.66$91.49$118.00
Upside / Downside6.72%38.18%78.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.4886.9089.3991.9694.5997.31100.22
Payout Ratio42.22%51.77%61.33%70.89%80.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.6744.9954.8365.1976.0987.5792.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate1.87%2.87%3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)41.0041.4041.81
Year 2 PV (M)45.5346.4347.33
Year 3 PV (M)49.3350.8052.29
Year 4 PV (M)52.4854.5756.72
Year 5 PV (M)55.0457.7960.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,027.731,079.171,132.66
Equity Value (M)1,271.101,330.161,391.46
Shares Outstanding (M)14.3214.3214.32
Fair Value$88.74$92.86$97.14
Upside / Downside34.02%40.25%46.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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