Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Teladan Prima Agro Tbk (TLDN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$919.01 - $1,428.02$1,154.35
Multi-Stage$2,115.68 - $2,330.81$2,221.12
Blended Fair Value$1,687.74
Current Price$700.00
Upside141.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%12.2313.506.170.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---9.38%118.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.42%3.00%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,260,982.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)399,958.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)861,024.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252,196.52157,622.8294,573.69
Cash Retained (M)861,024.55861,024.55861,024.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-252,196.52-157,622.82-94,573.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)608,828.03703,401.72766,450.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,946.5312,946.5312,946.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share47.0354.3359.20
LTM Dividend per Share30.8930.8930.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share47.0354.3359.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend77.9285.2290.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$919.01$1,154.35$1,428.02
Upside / Downside31.29%64.91%104.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,260,982.581,248,372.761,235,889.031,223,530.141,211,294.841,199,181.891,235,157.35
Payout Ratio31.72%43.37%55.03%66.69%78.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)399,958.04541,473.86680,119.37815,937.83948,971.901,079,263.701,142,520.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)504,194.50509,339.35514,484.19
Year 2 PV (M)589,693.54601,789.50614,008.27
Year 3 PV (M)658,747.39679,119.60699,907.55
Year 4 PV (M)713,404.43742,971.71773,448.68
Year 5 PV (M)755,493.33794,833.62835,795.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,169,226.1225,427,773.8026,738,212.24
Equity Value (M)27,390,759.3128,755,827.5730,175,856.86
Shares Outstanding (M)12,946.5312,946.5312,946.53
Fair Value$2,115.68$2,221.12$2,330.81
Upside / Downside202.24%217.30%232.97%

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