Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thor Industries, Inc. (THO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - Recreational VehiclesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.55 - $86.09$68.98
Multi-Stage$66.59 - $72.85$69.66
Blended Fair Value$69.32
Current Price$104.35
Upside-33.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.74%6.34%1.991.921.801.781.711.661.581.471.301.18
YoY Growth--3.91%6.43%1.08%4.56%2.81%4.97%7.89%12.36%10.23%9.74%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.84%2.05%2.19%1.61%1.96%2.50%2.10%0.96%1.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.4135.2621.15
Cash Retained (M)175.93175.93175.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.41-35.26-21.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.52140.67154.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.2353.2353.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.252.642.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.252.642.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.244.644.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$54.55$68.98$86.09
Upside / Downside-47.72%-33.90%-17.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282.06289.80297.74305.91314.30322.92332.61
Payout Ratio37.63%48.10%58.58%69.05%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.13139.40174.41211.23249.95290.63307.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)125.89127.13128.37
Year 2 PV (M)142.25145.06147.90
Year 3 PV (M)155.60160.23164.95
Year 4 PV (M)166.28172.91179.74
Year 5 PV (M)174.61183.36192.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,779.722,919.043,063.89
Equity Value (M)3,544.353,707.733,877.31
Shares Outstanding (M)53.2353.2353.23
Fair Value$66.59$69.66$72.85
Upside / Downside-36.19%-33.24%-30.19%

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