Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$185.95 - $299.60$237.20
Multi-Stage$296.83 - $326.20$311.23
Blended Fair Value$274.22
Current Price$181.63
Upside50.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.31%6.36%3.403.222.992.802.7310.602.592.382.212.04
YoY Growth--5.89%7.62%6.56%2.71%-74.24%309.54%8.64%7.96%8.36%10.75%
Dividend Yield--1.96%2.40%2.33%1.88%2.11%11.70%2.25%2.02%2.45%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)631.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)502.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.3878.9947.39
Cash Retained (M)502.60502.60502.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.38-78.99-47.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)376.22423.61455.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.4536.4536.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.3211.6212.49
LTM Dividend per Share3.553.553.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.3211.6212.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.8715.1716.04
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Fair Value$185.95$237.20$299.60
Upside / Downside2.38%30.60%64.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)631.90638.63645.43652.31659.25666.28686.27
Payout Ratio20.46%34.37%48.28%62.18%76.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.30219.50311.60405.64501.64599.65634.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.53%7.53%7.53%
Growth Rate0.07%1.07%2.07%
Year 1 PV (M)202.11204.13206.15
Year 2 PV (M)264.19269.49274.85
Year 3 PV (M)316.68326.26336.05
Year 4 PV (M)360.60375.24390.31
Year 5 PV (M)396.91417.14438.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,279.149,752.1510,244.26
Equity Value (M)10,819.6211,344.4211,889.81
Shares Outstanding (M)36.4536.4536.45
Fair Value$296.83$311.23$326.20
Upside / Downside63.43%71.36%79.59%

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