Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Target Corporation (TGT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Discount StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.75 - $223.16$163.66
Multi-Stage$126.37 - $138.03$132.09
Blended Fair Value$147.88
Current Price$92.72
Upside59.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.00%5.44%4.484.404.023.392.942.912.922.932.952.98
YoY Growth--1.74%9.53%18.60%15.26%0.98%-0.37%-0.22%-0.74%-1.03%13.03%
Dividend Yield--4.60%2.79%2.55%1.48%1.42%2.69%3.85%4.12%5.29%3.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,763.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,050.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,713.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)752.60470.38282.23
Cash Retained (M)1,713.001,713.001,713.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-752.60-470.38-282.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)960.401,242.631,430.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)456.55456.55456.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.102.723.13
LTM Dividend per Share4.494.494.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.102.723.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.597.217.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Fair Value$121.75$163.66$223.16
Upside / Downside31.31%76.51%140.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,763.003,929.954,104.314,286.414,476.594,675.204,815.46
Payout Ratio54.48%61.58%68.69%75.79%82.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,050.002,420.152,819.123,248.723,710.894,207.684,454.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.44%4.44%5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)2,198.282,219.532,240.79
Year 2 PV (M)2,325.912,371.102,416.73
Year 3 PV (M)2,434.632,505.932,578.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,526.042,625.152,727.14
Year 5 PV (M)2,601.622,729.842,863.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,606.5547,854.1550,189.51
Equity Value (M)57,693.0360,305.7063,015.83
Shares Outstanding (M)456.55456.55456.55
Fair Value$126.37$132.09$138.03
Upside / Downside36.29%42.46%48.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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