Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Tigaraksa Satria Tbk (TGKA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,048.47 - $14,181.05$9,817.29
Multi-Stage$10,975.48 - $12,037.20$11,496.28
Blended Fair Value$10,656.78
Current Price$5,650.00
Upside88.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.48%15.24%312.00355.00295.00360.00285.00239.00160.00115.00106.5094.50
YoY Growth---12.11%20.34%-18.06%26.32%19.25%49.38%39.13%7.98%12.70%25.17%
Dividend Yield--5.16%5.24%4.45%5.12%3.61%4.60%4.57%4.51%4.02%3.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)385,135.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)275,548.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)109,587.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77,027.0048,141.8828,885.13
Cash Retained (M)109,587.00109,587.00109,587.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-77,027.00-48,141.88-28,885.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)32,560.0061,445.1380,701.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)918.49918.49918.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share35.4566.9087.86
LTM Dividend per Share300.00300.00300.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share35.4566.9087.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend335.45366.90387.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$7,048.47$9,817.29$14,181.05
Upside / Downside24.75%73.76%150.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)385,135.00394,808.61404,725.20414,890.87425,311.87435,994.62449,074.46
Payout Ratio71.55%75.24%78.93%82.62%86.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)275,548.00297,040.80319,439.45342,775.90367,083.12392,395.16415,393.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)276,598.85279,323.65282,048.44
Year 2 PV (M)276,985.53282,469.62288,007.47
Year 3 PV (M)276,766.21285,026.38293,449.30
Year 4 PV (M)275,995.15287,032.31298,397.24
Year 5 PV (M)274,722.95288,523.78302,873.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,699,834.139,136,874.029,591,303.97
Equity Value (M)10,080,902.8210,559,249.7611,056,080.16
Shares Outstanding (M)918.49918.49918.49
Fair Value$10,975.48$11,496.28$12,037.20
Upside / Downside94.26%103.47%113.05%

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