Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.58 - $372.77$169.80
Multi-Stage$65.25 - $71.28$68.21
Blended Fair Value$119.01
Current Price$44.41
Upside167.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.79%18.78%1.321.211.090.900.800.760.570.460.420.36
YoY Growth--9.39%11.46%20.43%13.01%5.22%33.19%24.04%10.49%15.58%51.77%
Dividend Yield--3.31%3.40%2.61%2.25%1.68%2.54%1.44%1.23%1.17%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)116.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.3914.628.77
Cash Retained (M)72.7172.7172.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.39-14.62-8.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.3258.0963.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.9932.9932.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.761.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.341.341.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.761.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.103.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.58$169.80$372.77
Upside / Downside128.74%282.35%739.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)116.96124.56132.66141.28150.46160.24165.05
Payout Ratio37.83%48.26%58.70%69.13%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2560.1277.8797.67119.72144.22152.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.9255.4455.96
Year 2 PV (M)64.9766.2167.46
Year 3 PV (M)74.4476.5878.76
Year 4 PV (M)83.3586.5689.85
Year 5 PV (M)91.7296.15100.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,782.981,869.101,958.52
Equity Value (M)2,152.392,250.042,351.30
Shares Outstanding (M)32.9932.9932.99
Fair Value$65.25$68.21$71.28
Upside / Downside46.92%53.59%60.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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