Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.36 - $108.60$88.13
Multi-Stage$414.52 - $458.84$436.23
Blended Fair Value$262.18
Current Price$252.79
Upside3.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.27%-1.01%2.742.672.652.782.963.073.253.312.563.32
YoY Growth--2.56%0.52%-4.59%-6.01%-3.57%-5.61%-1.79%29.41%-22.83%9.49%
Dividend Yield--1.93%2.45%4.03%5.23%3.51%6.30%6.84%6.99%7.71%8.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)606.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,107.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)342.60214.13128.48
Cash Retained (M)1,107.001,107.001,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-342.60-214.13-128.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)764.40892.88978.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.25219.25219.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.494.074.46
LTM Dividend per Share2.762.762.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.494.074.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.256.847.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.23%4.23%4.23%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Fair Value$70.36$88.13$108.60
Upside / Downside-72.17%-65.14%-57.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,713.001,656.981,602.801,550.381,499.681,450.641,494.16
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)606.00767.20917.221,056.601,185.881,305.581,382.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.23%4.23%4.23%
Growth Rate-4.27%-3.27%-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)728.43736.04743.65
Year 2 PV (M)826.86844.22861.77
Year 3 PV (M)904.37933.01962.25
Year 4 PV (M)963.741,004.641,046.83
Year 5 PV (M)1,007.391,061.121,117.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)86,453.7591,064.5995,870.08
Equity Value (M)90,884.5495,643.62100,601.70
Shares Outstanding (M)219.25219.25219.25
Fair Value$414.52$436.23$458.84
Upside / Downside63.98%72.57%81.51%

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