Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $506.42 - $2,015.95 | $1,370.56 |
| Multi-Stage | $295.94 - $324.18 | $309.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $840.18 | |
| Current Price | $116.01 | |
| Upside | 624.23% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.12% | 6.72% | 3.54 | 3.32 | 3.33 | 2.58 | 3.05 | 3.19 | 2.84 | 2.63 | 2.48 | 2.24 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.49% | -0.21% | 29.26% | -15.41% | -4.41% | 12.32% | 7.81% | 6.22% | 10.38% | 21.52% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.95% | 4.30% | 4.40% | 2.96% | 3.62% | 5.98% | 4.20% | 2.64% | 3.11% | 3.83% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,981.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 998.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,983.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 596.20 | 372.63 | 223.58 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,983.00 | 1,983.00 | 1,983.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -596.20 | -372.63 | -223.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,386.80 | 1,610.38 | 1,759.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 291.95 | 291.95 | 291.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.75 | 5.52 | 6.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.75 | 5.52 | 6.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.17 | 8.93 | 9.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.41% | 6.41% | 6.41% |
| Growth Rate | 4.72% | 5.72% | 6.72% |
| Fair Value | $506.42 | $1,370.56 | $2,015.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 336.53% | 1,081.42% | 1,637.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,981.00 | 3,151.55 | 3,331.86 | 3,522.49 | 3,724.02 | 3,937.08 | 4,055.20 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.48% | 44.78% | 56.09% | 67.39% | 78.70% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 998.00 | 1,411.36 | 1,868.75 | 2,373.86 | 2,930.65 | 3,543.38 | 3,751.06 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.41% | 6.41% | 6.41% |
| Growth Rate | 4.72% | 5.72% | 6.72% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,313.79 | 1,326.33 | 1,338.88 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,619.30 | 1,650.37 | 1,681.74 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,914.78 | 1,970.16 | 2,026.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 2,200.47 | 2,285.73 | 2,373.45 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2,476.61 | 2,597.14 | 2,722.31 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 76,873.71 | 80,614.87 | 84,500.30 |
| Equity Value (M) | 86,398.66 | 90,444.61 | 94,643.28 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 291.95 | 291.95 | 291.95 |
| Fair Value | $295.94 | $309.80 | $324.18 |
| Upside / Downside | 155.10% | 167.04% | 179.44% |
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| NHY.OL | Norsk Hydro ASA | 2.83% | $2.25 | 46.34% |
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| 688526.SS | Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd | 2.82% | $0.43 | 43.47% |
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