Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.27 - $267.44$105.17
Multi-Stage$37.00 - $40.45$38.70
Blended Fair Value$71.93
Current Price$30.34
Upside137.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.45%0.00%0.540.530.290.180.190.170.090.080.080.09
YoY Growth--2.20%80.11%58.59%-2.66%13.76%75.88%12.85%0.39%-2.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.95%2.21%1.19%0.60%0.62%0.94%0.29%0.29%0.29%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.3912.747.65
Cash Retained (M)74.5374.5374.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.39-12.74-7.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.1461.7966.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)52.4352.4352.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.181.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.181.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.701.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.27$105.17$267.44
Upside / Downside98.64%246.62%781.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.94108.56115.62123.13131.14139.66143.85
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.4142.8960.2779.73101.47125.70133.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.2639.6340.00
Year 2 PV (M)50.5051.4652.43
Year 3 PV (M)61.1562.9064.69
Year 4 PV (M)71.2373.9776.79
Year 5 PV (M)80.7784.6788.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,637.031,716.101,798.20
Equity Value (M)1,939.942,028.742,120.83
Shares Outstanding (M)52.4352.4352.43
Fair Value$37.00$38.70$40.45
Upside / Downside21.96%27.55%33.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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