Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financials

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Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Metrics

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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1st Source Corporation (SRCE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.59 - $617.72$285.49
Multi-Stage$114.58 - $125.31$119.85
Blended Fair Value$202.67
Current Price$61.56
Upside229.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.05%7.21%1.441.351.311.281.211.181.050.830.790.74
YoY Growth--7.02%3.03%2.43%5.29%2.56%12.98%25.72%5.23%7.12%2.74%
Dividend Yield--2.41%2.62%3.03%2.76%2.55%3.65%2.29%1.65%1.69%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)111.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7218.5711.14
Cash Retained (M)111.14111.14111.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.72-18.57-11.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)81.4292.57100.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.5124.5124.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.323.784.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.323.784.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.855.305.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Fair Value$171.59$285.49$617.72
Upside / Downside178.74%363.75%903.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.58157.81167.61178.02189.07200.82206.84
Payout Ratio25.20%38.16%51.12%64.08%77.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.4460.2285.68114.07145.66180.74191.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.18%8.18%8.18%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)55.1455.6656.19
Year 2 PV (M)71.8473.2174.59
Year 3 PV (M)87.5790.0992.66
Year 4 PV (M)102.39106.34110.40
Year 5 PV (M)116.33121.96127.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,375.662,490.732,610.21
Equity Value (M)2,808.932,938.003,071.87
Shares Outstanding (M)24.5124.5124.51
Fair Value$114.58$119.85$125.31
Upside / Downside86.13%94.69%103.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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