Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Pertiwi Tbk (SPTO.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,607.12 - $7,878.04$4,142.52
Multi-Stage$2,832.14 - $3,102.17$2,964.63
Blended Fair Value$3,553.58
Current Price$660.00
Upside438.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.57%0.00%60.0050.0050.0035.0040.0038.0065.9377.7861.3754.24
YoY Growth--20.00%0.00%42.86%-12.50%5.26%-42.36%-15.24%26.75%13.14%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.76%8.93%9.09%6.31%8.44%6.28%6.87%6.54%5.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279,669.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)190,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)89,269.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,933.9334,958.7120,975.22
Cash Retained (M)89,269.6589,269.6589,269.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,933.93-34,958.71-20,975.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)33,335.7254,310.9568,294.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,700.002,700.002,700.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.3520.1225.29
LTM Dividend per Share70.5270.5270.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.3520.1225.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend82.8790.6395.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$2,607.12$4,142.52$7,878.04
Upside / Downside295.02%527.65%1,093.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279,669.65291,319.58303,454.80316,095.52329,262.81342,978.59353,267.95
Payout Ratio68.08%72.46%76.85%81.23%85.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)190,400.00211,102.57233,199.53256,771.12281,901.86308,680.73326,772.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)196,417.58198,321.49200,225.39
Year 2 PV (M)201,883.74205,816.49209,787.18
Year 3 PV (M)206,826.75212,899.64219,090.27
Year 4 PV (M)211,273.63219,585.14228,139.50
Year 5 PV (M)215,250.28225,886.76236,939.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,615,121.516,942,004.367,281,683.57
Equity Value (M)7,646,773.498,004,513.888,375,865.53
Shares Outstanding (M)2,700.002,700.002,700.00
Fair Value$2,832.14$2,964.63$3,102.17
Upside / Downside329.11%349.19%370.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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