Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Supalai Public Company Limited (SPALI-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.11 - $265.89$116.85
Multi-Stage$71.18 - $78.01$74.53
Blended Fair Value$95.69
Current Price$18.20
Upside425.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%7.43%1.361.461.461.011.121.110.430.490.891.02
YoY Growth---6.87%0.09%45.20%-9.83%0.80%155.81%-11.26%-44.95%-13.12%53.34%
Dividend Yield--8.51%6.93%6.58%4.64%5.22%7.43%2.22%2.27%3.55%5.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,665.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,700.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,964.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)933.08583.17349.90
Cash Retained (M)1,964.641,964.641,964.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-933.08-583.17-349.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,031.561,381.471,614.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.021,935.021,935.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.710.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.710.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Fair Value$69.11$116.85$265.89
Upside / Downside279.73%542.01%1,360.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,665.394,866.555,076.385,295.265,523.585,761.745,934.59
Payout Ratio57.89%64.31%70.73%77.16%83.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,700.753,129.733,590.704,085.594,616.485,185.575,489.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,918.902,947.162,975.41
Year 2 PV (M)3,123.223,183.983,245.32
Year 3 PV (M)3,314.293,411.473,510.53
Year 4 PV (M)3,492.693,629.893,771.10
Year 5 PV (M)3,658.953,839.494,027.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,230.18127,212.07133,427.79
Equity Value (M)137,738.23144,224.06150,957.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,935.021,935.021,935.02
Fair Value$71.18$74.53$78.01
Upside / Downside291.11%309.53%328.65%

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