Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.82 - $76.45$56.97
Multi-Stage$52.25 - $57.23$54.69
Blended Fair Value$55.83
Current Price$40.82
Upside36.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%7.85%1.131.121.050.990.500.920.840.770.690.61
YoY Growth--0.70%7.41%5.63%97.71%-45.53%9.22%9.06%11.91%12.78%15.05%
Dividend Yield--4.54%3.36%2.83%2.30%1.20%2.21%1.71%1.62%1.40%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.818.635.18
Cash Retained (M)42.3042.3042.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.81-8.63-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.4933.6737.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.4022.4022.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.271.501.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.271.501.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$42.82$56.97$76.45
Upside / Downside4.90%39.56%87.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.0571.2873.5975.9778.4380.9783.40
Payout Ratio38.74%48.99%59.24%69.49%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7534.9243.5952.7962.5472.8777.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)31.9832.3032.61
Year 2 PV (M)36.5737.2938.02
Year 3 PV (M)40.5641.7742.99
Year 4 PV (M)44.0145.7647.56
Year 5 PV (M)46.9749.3151.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)970.261,018.651,068.95
Equity Value (M)1,170.351,225.071,281.86
Shares Outstanding (M)22.4022.4022.40
Fair Value$52.25$54.69$57.23
Upside / Downside27.99%33.98%40.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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