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Definitive Analysis

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Silgan Holdings Inc. (SLGN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.42 - $366.87$152.08
Multi-Stage$60.44 - $66.13$63.23
Blended Fair Value$107.65
Current Price$44.52
Upside141.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.05%7.83%0.770.740.670.580.500.470.420.380.380.37
YoY Growth--4.01%9.65%15.13%16.50%5.51%14.12%10.02%-0.94%2.86%2.89%
Dividend Yield--1.50%1.51%1.25%1.26%1.19%1.63%1.39%1.36%1.28%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)315.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)230.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.0539.4123.65
Cash Retained (M)230.20230.20230.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.05-39.41-23.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)167.14190.79206.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.781.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.781.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.352.572.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate4.96%5.96%6.96%
Fair Value$88.42$152.08$366.87
Upside / Downside98.61%241.59%724.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)315.27334.06353.96375.05397.40421.08433.71
Payout Ratio26.98%39.59%52.19%64.79%77.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.07132.24184.73243.01307.58378.97401.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate4.96%5.96%6.96%
Year 1 PV (M)121.57122.73123.89
Year 2 PV (M)156.12159.11162.13
Year 3 PV (M)188.80194.25199.80
Year 4 PV (M)219.67228.17236.90
Year 5 PV (M)248.82260.91273.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,543.195,812.346,091.84
Equity Value (M)6,478.186,777.507,088.01
Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
Fair Value$60.44$63.23$66.13
Upside / Downside35.76%42.03%48.54%

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