Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Sime Darby Berhad (SIME.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.11 - $61.65$57.78
Multi-Stage$9.13 - $9.99$9.55
Blended Fair Value$33.66
Current Price$2.13
Upside1,480.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.28%0.84%0.140.140.100.120.090.090.060.190.110.11
YoY Growth--3.58%28.81%-12.38%33.33%0.00%50.00%-68.42%74.83%-0.14%-15.65%
Dividend Yield--6.57%6.34%4.92%5.59%3.96%3.61%2.66%7.26%1.20%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,113.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)954.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,159.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)422.60264.13158.48
Cash Retained (M)1,159.001,159.001,159.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-422.60-264.13-158.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)736.40894.881,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,816.006,816.006,816.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.11$57.78$61.65
Upside / Downside1,126.03%2,612.55%2,794.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,113.002,250.352,396.622,552.402,718.302,894.992,981.84
Payout Ratio45.15%54.12%63.09%72.06%81.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)954.001,217.871,512.011,839.252,202.642,605.492,758.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,132.781,143.521,154.26
Year 2 PV (M)1,308.121,333.031,358.18
Year 3 PV (M)1,480.051,522.541,565.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,648.631,712.041,777.25
Year 5 PV (M)1,813.921,901.531,992.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,833.7557,482.2460,232.09
Equity Value (M)62,217.2565,094.8968,080.11
Shares Outstanding (M)6,816.006,816.006,816.00
Fair Value$9.13$9.55$9.99
Upside / Downside328.55%348.37%368.93%

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