Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Star Group, L.P. (SGU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.51 - $22.49$18.20
Multi-Stage$29.31 - $32.24$30.74
Blended Fair Value$24.47
Current Price$11.83
Upside106.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.730.690.680.680.710.750.750.710.67
YoY Growth---100.00%5.45%2.38%-1.09%-4.10%-4.46%-0.04%5.27%5.33%8.42%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.33%6.01%5.61%6.35%7.58%7.89%8.00%6.60%6.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.566.603.96
Cash Retained (M)33.3233.3233.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.56-6.60-3.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.7626.7229.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.2834.2834.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.780.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.780.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.231.351.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.50%-0.50%0.50%
Fair Value$14.51$18.20$22.49
Upside / Downside22.63%53.88%90.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.8052.5452.2752.0151.7551.5053.04
Payout Ratio36.90%47.52%58.14%68.76%79.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.4824.9630.3935.7641.0846.3549.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-1.50%-0.50%0.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.1223.3623.59
Year 2 PV (M)26.0826.6127.15
Year 3 PV (M)28.4329.3030.19
Year 4 PV (M)30.2531.5032.78
Year 5 PV (M)31.6133.2534.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)865.03909.84956.49
Equity Value (M)1,004.521,053.861,105.16
Shares Outstanding (M)34.2834.2834.28
Fair Value$29.31$30.74$32.24
Upside / Downside147.72%159.89%172.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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