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Definitive Analysis

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Grupo Security S.A. (SECURITY.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,298.86 - $4,696.44$4,117.10
Multi-Stage$624.21 - $681.30$652.24
Blended Fair Value$2,384.67
Current Price$283.89
Upside740.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS10.22%0.00%18.5419.1015.0410.9410.2411.400.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.92%27.00%37.46%6.88%-10.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.55%6.95%9.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,349.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92,319.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,030.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,869.9911,793.757,076.25
Cash Retained (M)2,030.682,030.682,030.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,869.99-11,793.75-7,076.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16,839.31-9,763.06-5,045.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,995.343,995.343,995.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-2.44-1.26
LTM Dividend per Share23.1123.1123.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-2.44-1.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8920.6621.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,298.86$4,117.10$4,696.44
Upside / Downside357.52%1,350.24%1,554.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,349.97100,482.72107,014.10113,970.02121,378.07129,267.64133,145.67
Payout Ratio97.85%96.28%94.71%93.14%91.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92,319.2996,742.93101,351.58106,150.63111,145.34116,340.88123,159.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89,536.1190,384.8091,233.48
Year 2 PV (M)86,813.7788,467.3390,136.48
Year 3 PV (M)84,151.0786,566.7589,028.22
Year 4 PV (M)81,546.8984,682.9587,908.61
Year 5 PV (M)79,000.0782,815.8086,777.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,072,875.552,172,996.212,276,948.73
Equity Value (M)2,493,923.462,605,913.832,722,033.09
Shares Outstanding (M)3,995.343,995.343,995.34
Fair Value$624.21$652.24$681.30
Upside / Downside119.88%129.75%139.99%

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