Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Stepan Company (SCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.55 - $34.77$27.51
Multi-Stage$30.08 - $32.88$31.45
Blended Fair Value$29.48
Current Price$47.70
Upside-38.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.01%8.24%1.481.441.341.231.111.010.910.830.760.71
YoY Growth--3.29%7.51%8.87%10.54%9.99%10.74%10.31%9.11%6.31%5.93%
Dividend Yield--2.69%1.62%1.30%1.24%0.87%1.14%1.03%0.99%0.96%1.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.055.663.39
Cash Retained (M)10.4910.4910.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.05-5.66-3.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.444.837.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.8922.8922.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.210.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.521.521.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.210.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Fair Value$21.55$27.51$34.77
Upside / Downside-54.82%-42.34%-27.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45.2446.2647.2948.3549.4450.5552.06
Payout Ratio76.82%79.46%82.09%84.73%87.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.7636.7538.8240.9743.1945.4948.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate1.24%2.24%3.24%
Year 1 PV (M)33.4933.8234.15
Year 2 PV (M)32.2432.8833.52
Year 3 PV (M)31.0031.9332.87
Year 4 PV (M)29.7830.9732.20
Year 5 PV (M)28.5830.0231.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)533.58560.46588.41
Equity Value (M)688.66720.07752.67
Shares Outstanding (M)22.8922.8922.89
Fair Value$30.08$31.45$32.88
Upside / Downside-36.94%-34.06%-31.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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