Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Biru Murni Acetylene Tbk (SBMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,333.80 - $2,753.53$2,578.64
Multi-Stage$3,660.94 - $4,047.46$3,850.31
Blended Fair Value$3,214.47
Current Price$140.00
Upside2,196.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%1.101.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,836.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,719.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,116.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,767.201,729.501,037.70
Cash Retained (M)10,116.3010,116.3010,116.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,767.20-1,729.50-1,037.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,349.108,386.809,078.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9113.0213.77
WACC / Discount Rate-18.51%-18.51%-18.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,333.80$2,578.64$2,753.53
Upside / Downside1,567.00%1,741.89%1,866.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,836.0113,697.6513,560.6713,425.0613,290.8113,157.9013,552.64
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,719.715,411.587,069.258,693.2210,284.0111,842.1112,536.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-18.51%-18.51%-18.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6,574.106,641.196,708.27
Year 2 PV (M)10,432.7310,646.7310,862.90
Year 3 PV (M)15,585.4016,067.3816,559.21
Year 4 PV (M)22,398.1323,326.4324,283.29
Year 5 PV (M)31,332.1932,963.7334,662.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,316,860.813,489,577.453,669,415.31
Equity Value (M)3,403,183.373,579,222.913,762,491.52
Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
Fair Value$3,660.94$3,850.31$4,047.46
Upside / Downside2,514.95%2,650.22%2,791.04%

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