Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rayonier Inc. (RYN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$151.02 - $630.35$260.08
Multi-Stage$94.03 - $102.77$98.32
Blended Fair Value$179.20
Current Price$22.18
Upside707.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.29%-2.47%1.291.091.070.990.940.910.880.820.790.80
YoY Growth--18.01%2.58%7.94%4.90%3.74%3.14%7.64%3.44%-1.67%-51.48%
Dividend Yield--4.63%3.37%3.20%2.40%2.92%3.85%2.77%2.32%2.79%3.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)775.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)537.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.1296.9558.17
Cash Retained (M)537.76537.76537.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.12-96.95-58.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)382.64440.81479.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.55155.55155.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.833.08
LTM Dividend per Share1.531.531.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.833.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.994.364.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$151.02$260.08$630.35
Upside / Downside580.90%1,072.60%2,741.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)775.61826.03879.72936.90997.801,062.661,094.54
Payout Ratio30.67%42.53%54.40%66.27%78.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.85351.33478.56620.85779.61956.391,012.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.29%8.29%8.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)321.40324.45327.49
Year 2 PV (M)400.49408.12415.82
Year 3 PV (M)475.30488.95502.85
Year 4 PV (M)546.00567.00588.59
Year 5 PV (M)612.74642.34673.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,269.8012,862.4313,477.75
Equity Value (M)14,625.7315,293.2815,985.58
Shares Outstanding (M)155.55155.55155.55
Fair Value$94.03$98.32$102.77
Upside / Downside323.92%343.27%363.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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