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Definitive Analysis

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Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (RYAN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - SpecialtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.99 - $4.73$3.78
Multi-Stage$4.92 - $5.38$5.14
Blended Fair Value$4.46
Current Price$56.36
Upside-92.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS2.11%0.00%0.340.000.170.200.210.300.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-15.32%-6.04%-30.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.00%0.42%0.51%0.77%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.838.655.19
Cash Retained (M)8.628.628.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.83-8.65-5.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.22-0.033.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Fair Value$2.99$3.78$4.73
Upside / Downside-94.70%-93.29%-91.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.1769.9470.7171.5072.2973.0975.28
Payout Ratio87.54%88.03%88.52%89.02%89.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.5561.5762.6063.6464.7065.7869.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate0.11%1.11%2.11%
Year 1 PV (M)56.4957.0557.62
Year 2 PV (M)52.7053.7554.82
Year 3 PV (M)49.1650.6452.16
Year 4 PV (M)45.8547.7149.63
Year 5 PV (M)42.7744.9547.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)921.40968.351,017.20
Equity Value (M)1,168.361,222.461,278.64
Shares Outstanding (M)237.66237.66237.66
Fair Value$4.92$5.14$5.38
Upside / Downside-91.28%-90.87%-90.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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