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Definitive Analysis

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Red River Bancshares, Inc. (RRBI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$146.52 - $411.76$227.98
Multi-Stage$108.34 - $118.62$113.39
Blended Fair Value$170.68
Current Price$64.82
Upside163.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.37%0.00%0.370.340.300.300.260.200.150.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.48%13.82%-1.08%15.58%32.65%31.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.71%0.70%0.62%0.57%0.46%0.53%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.135.083.05
Cash Retained (M)37.4437.4437.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.13-5.08-3.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.3132.3634.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.756.756.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.344.795.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.344.795.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.815.275.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate4.80%5.80%6.80%
Fair Value$146.52$227.98$411.76
Upside / Downside126.04%251.71%535.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40.6643.0145.5148.1550.9453.9055.51
Payout Ratio7.90%24.32%40.74%57.16%73.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.2110.4618.5427.5237.4848.5151.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate4.80%5.80%6.80%
Year 1 PV (M)9.579.669.75
Year 2 PV (M)15.5315.8216.12
Year 3 PV (M)21.0921.7022.32
Year 4 PV (M)26.2827.3028.35
Year 5 PV (M)31.1332.6434.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)628.23658.78690.51
Equity Value (M)731.83765.91801.27
Shares Outstanding (M)6.756.756.75
Fair Value$108.34$113.39$118.62
Upside / Downside67.14%74.93%83.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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