Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - MortgageSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.21 - $105.48$60.21
Multi-Stage$28.19 - $30.72$29.43
Blended Fair Value$44.82
Current Price$11.39
Upside293.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.15%9.96%1.101.061.040.700.621.511.231.060.810.56
YoY Growth--3.01%2.25%48.54%13.05%-58.84%22.05%16.07%31.57%43.03%33.11%
Dividend Yield--9.58%9.74%13.01%6.38%5.51%30.06%7.19%6.46%4.76%4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)886.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)632.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.33110.8366.50
Cash Retained (M)253.92253.92253.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.33-110.83-66.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.60143.09187.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)536.38536.38536.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.270.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.270.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.21$60.21$105.48
Upside / Downside244.23%428.64%826.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)886.63944.261,005.631,071.001,140.611,214.751,251.20
Payout Ratio71.36%75.09%78.82%82.54%86.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)632.70709.03792.60884.05984.031,093.281,157.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.06%9.06%9.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)644.03650.14656.24
Year 2 PV (M)653.95666.41678.98
Year 3 PV (M)662.54681.55700.93
Year 4 PV (M)669.86695.63722.12
Year 5 PV (M)676.01708.66742.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,812.5012,383.0512,975.43
Equity Value (M)15,118.8915,785.4316,476.27
Shares Outstanding (M)536.38536.38536.38
Fair Value$28.19$29.43$30.72
Upside / Downside147.47%158.38%169.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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