Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Pernod Ricard S.A. (RI.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.90 - $310.73$229.83
Multi-Stage$316.60 - $347.46$331.73
Blended Fair Value$280.78
Current Price$84.60
Upside231.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.004.794.253.282.793.372.562.182.031.97
YoY Growth---100.00%12.69%29.78%17.33%-17.08%31.63%17.06%7.83%2.82%7.81%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.77%2.10%1.87%1.49%2.40%1.57%1.56%1.73%1.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,102.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,402.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)700.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)620.40387.75232.65
Cash Retained (M)700.00700.00700.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-620.40-387.75-232.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.60312.25467.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.18252.18252.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.321.241.85
LTM Dividend per Share9.539.539.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.321.241.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8410.7611.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Fair Value$171.90$229.83$310.73
Upside / Downside103.19%171.67%267.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,102.003,148.653,196.003,244.063,292.843,342.363,442.63
Payout Ratio77.43%79.95%82.46%84.97%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,402.002,517.252,635.432,756.592,880.803,008.123,184.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,345.682,369.022,392.36
Year 2 PV (M)2,288.412,334.182,380.40
Year 3 PV (M)2,230.472,297.722,366.30
Year 4 PV (M)2,172.102,259.842,350.22
Year 5 PV (M)2,113.502,220.762,332.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,688.9472,174.8675,800.88
Equity Value (M)79,839.1183,656.3887,622.49
Shares Outstanding (M)252.18252.18252.18
Fair Value$316.60$331.73$347.46
Upside / Downside274.23%292.12%310.71%

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