Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. (REYN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.89 - $19.70$16.08
Multi-Stage$28.09 - $30.88$29.46
Blended Fair Value$22.77
Current Price$24.47
Upside-6.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.910.910.910.910.590.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%54.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.82%3.15%3.32%3.11%1.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)304.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.8038.0022.80
Cash Retained (M)112.00112.00112.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.80-38.00-22.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.2074.0089.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)210.48210.48210.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.350.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.350.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.89$16.08$19.70
Upside / Downside-47.31%-34.30%-19.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)304.00300.96297.95294.97292.02289.10297.77
Payout Ratio63.16%68.53%73.89%79.26%84.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.00206.24220.17233.80247.14260.19275.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)191.19193.14195.09
Year 2 PV (M)189.21193.09197.01
Year 3 PV (M)186.26192.02197.90
Year 4 PV (M)182.52190.08197.88
Year 5 PV (M)178.13187.41197.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,985.425,245.025,515.33
Equity Value (M)5,912.736,200.766,500.27
Shares Outstanding (M)210.48210.48210.48
Fair Value$28.09$29.46$30.88
Upside / Downside14.80%20.40%26.21%

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