Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.36 - $118.17$85.75
Multi-Stage$50.09 - $54.59$52.30
Blended Fair Value$69.02
Current Price$26.23
Upside163.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.461.311.180.860.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.28%10.53%37.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.99%3.88%3.11%3.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2710.806.48
Cash Retained (M)53.5453.5453.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.27-10.80-6.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.2642.7447.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.1821.1821.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.712.022.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.712.022.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.573.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.93%10.93%10.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.36$85.75$118.17
Upside / Downside141.57%226.91%350.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.3791.9997.96104.33111.11118.34121.89
Payout Ratio38.01%48.41%58.81%69.21%79.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.8344.5357.6172.2088.45106.50112.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.93%10.93%10.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.7740.1440.52
Year 2 PV (M)45.9446.8247.70
Year 3 PV (M)51.4252.8954.40
Year 4 PV (M)56.2558.4160.63
Year 5 PV (M)60.4863.4066.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)807.29846.28886.77
Equity Value (M)1,061.141,107.951,156.45
Shares Outstanding (M)21.1821.1821.18
Fair Value$50.09$52.30$54.59
Upside / Downside90.97%99.39%108.12%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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