Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Qatar Fuel Company Q.P.S.C.("WOQOD") (QFLS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.67 - $204.66$128.14
Multi-Stage$30.82 - $33.69$32.23
Blended Fair Value$80.19
Current Price$15.08
Upside431.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.20%7.12%1.300.900.760.460.800.800.800.640.700.76
YoY Growth--44.44%18.42%65.22%-42.50%0.00%0.00%24.57%-7.80%-8.89%17.00%
Dividend Yield--8.74%6.12%4.37%2.57%4.66%4.88%3.99%5.44%5.11%5.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,032.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)994.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)206.55129.0977.45
Cash Retained (M)38.4738.4738.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-206.55-129.09-77.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-168.07-90.62-38.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)996.22996.22996.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Fair Value$49.67$128.14$204.66
Upside / Downside229.39%749.74%1,257.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,032.731,091.741,154.131,220.081,289.791,363.491,404.40
Payout Ratio96.27%95.02%93.76%92.51%91.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)994.261,037.371,082.161,128.691,177.001,227.141,299.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Year 1 PV (M)965.18974.40983.62
Year 2 PV (M)936.79954.77972.92
Year 3 PV (M)909.08935.37962.17
Year 4 PV (M)882.02916.20951.36
Year 5 PV (M)855.61897.25940.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,158.9627,432.1128,754.35
Equity Value (M)30,707.6332,110.0933,564.91
Shares Outstanding (M)996.22996.22996.22
Fair Value$30.82$32.23$33.69
Upside / Downside104.40%113.74%123.42%

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