Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company Q.P.S.C. (QAMC.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.20 - $1.86$1.51
Multi-Stage$2.81 - $3.09$2.94
Blended Fair Value$2.23
Current Price$1.48
Upside50.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201720162015
DPS45.82%0.00%0.100.090.070.030.010.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.57%15.13%124.22%281.07%-44.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.19%6.79%4.82%1.30%0.74%2.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)536.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)144.2090.1354.08
Cash Retained (M)184.87184.87184.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-144.20-90.13-54.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.6794.75130.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,581.615,581.615,581.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.20$1.51$1.86
Upside / Downside-18.72%1.92%25.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)721.00713.79706.66699.59692.59685.67706.24
Payout Ratio74.36%77.49%80.62%83.74%86.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)536.13553.10569.67585.86601.67617.10653.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)514.49519.74524.99
Year 2 PV (M)492.92503.03513.24
Year 3 PV (M)471.54486.12501.00
Year 4 PV (M)450.45469.12488.37
Year 5 PV (M)429.76452.14475.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,308.2714,001.2614,722.83
Equity Value (M)15,667.4216,431.4117,225.86
Shares Outstanding (M)5,581.615,581.615,581.61
Fair Value$2.81$2.94$3.09
Upside / Downside89.66%98.91%108.53%

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