Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $11.50 - $17.31 | $14.24 |
| Multi-Stage | $24.03 - $26.36 | $25.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.71 | |
| Current Price | $13.91 | |
| Upside | 41.67% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.49% | 0.00% | 1.28 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 17.84% | 4.50% | 30.80% | -8.39% | 11.56% | 6.10% | 10.72% | -0.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.23% | 7.57% | 7.98% | 6.78% | 4.75% | 4.85% | 3.95% | 3.96% | 3.99% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 230.42 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 203.69 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 26.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 46.08 | 28.80 | 17.28 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 26.73 | 26.73 | 26.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -46.08 | -28.80 | -17.28 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -19.35 | -2.07 | 9.45 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 169.86 | 169.86 | 169.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.25 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $11.50 | $14.24 | $17.31 |
| Upside / Downside | -17.35% | 2.39% | 24.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 230.42 | 228.11 | 225.83 | 223.57 | 221.34 | 219.13 | 225.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 88.40% | 88.72% | 89.04% | 89.36% | 89.68% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 203.69 | 202.38 | 201.08 | 199.79 | 198.50 | 197.21 | 208.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.25% | 7.25% | 7.25% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 186.79 | 188.70 | 190.61 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 171.30 | 174.81 | 178.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 157.09 | 161.94 | 166.90 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 144.05 | 150.02 | 156.18 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 132.10 | 138.97 | 146.14 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,289.86 | 3,461.17 | 3,639.55 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,081.19 | 4,275.63 | 4,477.73 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 169.86 | 169.86 | 169.86 |
| Fair Value | $24.03 | $25.17 | $26.36 |
| Upside / Downside | 72.73% | 80.96% | 89.51% |
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| CWB.TO | Canadian Western Bank | 2.84% | $1.61 | 52.64% |
| GEPA3.SA | Rio Paranapanema Energia S.A. | 2.84% | $0.85 | 18.05% |
| VRANDA.BK | Veranda Resort Public Company Limited | 2.84% | $0.13 | 60.80% |
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| 002831.SZ | ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. | 2.83% | $0.81 | 49.61% |
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| AEFES.IS | Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi | 2.83% | $0.45 | 25.40% |
| BTPN.JK | PT Bank SMBC Indonesia Tbk | 2.83% | $60.33 | 24.97% |
| NHY.OL | Norsk Hydro ASA | 2.83% | $2.25 | 46.34% |
| OSP2.DE | USU Software AG | 2.83% | $0.52 | 91.56% |
| 000850.KS | Hwacheon Machine Tool Co. Ltd | 2.82% | $1,050.00 | 33.65% |
| 2205.HK | Kangqiao Service Group Limited | 2.82% | $0.04 | 36.89% |
| 2458.HK | Gala Technology Holding Limited | 2.82% | $0.18 | 14.30% |
| 688526.SS | Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.,Ltd | 2.82% | $0.43 | 43.47% |
| 7148.KL | Duopharma Biotech Berhad | 2.82% | $0.04 | 40.32% |
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| 9742.T | INES Corporation | 2.81% | $54.87 | 87.98% |
| CNH | CNH Industrial N.V. | 2.81% | $0.26 | 55.11% |
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| 6750.T | Elecom Co., Ltd. | 2.79% | $47.98 | 38.00% |
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