Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (PSH.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.92 - $156.00$129.27
Multi-Stage$190.86 - $210.25$200.37
Blended Fair Value$164.82
Current Price$47.65
Upside245.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.08%0.00%0.570.530.500.430.440.470.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.49%5.91%17.10%-1.83%-7.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.14%1.45%1.04%1.24%2.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,416.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,260.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)483.34302.09181.25
Cash Retained (M)2,260.172,260.172,260.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-483.34-302.09-181.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,776.821,958.082,078.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)186.45186.45186.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.5310.5011.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.5310.5011.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3711.3411.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$104.92$129.27$156.00
Upside / Downside120.19%171.30%227.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,416.722,392.562,368.632,344.942,321.492,298.282,367.23
Payout Ratio6.48%23.18%39.89%56.59%73.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.56554.65944.771,327.031,701.552,068.452,189.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)509.86515.07520.27
Year 2 PV (M)798.35814.73831.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,030.821,062.701,095.22
Year 4 PV (M)1,215.011,265.361,317.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,357.721,428.421,502.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,674.9532,272.2733,935.44
Equity Value (M)35,586.7137,358.5439,201.51
Shares Outstanding (M)186.45186.45186.45
Fair Value$190.86$200.37$210.25
Upside / Downside300.55%320.50%341.24%

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