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Definitive Analysis

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Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.56 - $9.57$8.02
Multi-Stage$17.49 - $19.27$18.36
Blended Fair Value$13.19
Current Price$15.75
Upside-16.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.08%-0.74%0.560.580.590.620.620.620.620.630.610.60
YoY Growth---3.11%-2.78%-3.57%-0.65%-0.24%-0.26%-0.80%2.65%2.62%-1.01%
Dividend Yield--3.56%4.03%4.54%4.34%3.68%5.23%3.01%3.46%3.12%3.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.210.750.45
Cash Retained (M)2.312.312.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.21-0.75-0.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.101.561.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.736.736.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.230.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.790.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate-4.08%-3.08%-2.08%
Fair Value$6.56$8.02$9.57
Upside / Downside-58.32%-49.09%-39.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.045.855.675.505.335.165.32
Payout Ratio61.73%67.38%73.04%78.69%84.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.733.944.144.324.494.654.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate-4.08%-3.08%-2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)3.673.703.74
Year 2 PV (M)3.583.663.73
Year 3 PV (M)3.483.593.70
Year 4 PV (M)3.363.503.65
Year 5 PV (M)3.233.413.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)100.28105.62111.18
Equity Value (M)117.60123.48129.59
Shares Outstanding (M)6.736.736.73
Fair Value$17.49$18.36$19.27
Upside / Downside11.02%16.56%22.34%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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