Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.50 - $151.53$102.39
Multi-Stage$52.84 - $57.73$55.24
Blended Fair Value$78.81
Current Price$32.36
Upside143.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.66%10.06%0.490.000.000.000.330.230.150.190.180.16
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%46.00%51.16%-21.59%7.30%8.77%-12.80%
Dividend Yield--1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.76%1.00%0.28%0.41%0.60%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)143.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.7720.4812.29
Cash Retained (M)143.27143.27143.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.77-20.48-12.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.50122.79130.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.662.953.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.662.953.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.153.453.64
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$72.50$102.39$151.53
Upside / Downside124.06%216.40%368.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.87174.52185.86197.95210.81224.51231.25
Payout Ratio12.57%28.05%43.54%59.03%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.6048.9680.93116.84157.08202.06213.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.0644.4844.89
Year 2 PV (M)65.5366.7868.04
Year 3 PV (M)85.1487.5890.07
Year 4 PV (M)103.00106.96111.04
Year 5 PV (M)119.23124.99130.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,781.601,867.651,957.00
Equity Value (M)2,198.552,298.432,402.00
Shares Outstanding (M)41.6141.6141.61
Fair Value$52.84$55.24$57.73
Upside / Downside63.28%70.70%78.39%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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