Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Perdoceo Education Corporation (PRDO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.46 - $27.27$22.68
Multi-Stage$33.27 - $36.60$34.90
Blended Fair Value$28.79
Current Price$37.66
Upside-23.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.470.220.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--119.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2119.5011.70
Cash Retained (M)120.10120.10120.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.21-19.50-11.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.90100.60108.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8066.8066.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.511.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.511.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.042.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.46$22.68$27.27
Upside / Downside-50.99%-39.78%-27.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.03154.47152.93151.40149.88148.38152.83
Payout Ratio23.03%36.42%49.82%63.21%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.9356.2676.1895.70114.82133.54141.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)51.6052.1352.65
Year 2 PV (M)64.0965.4166.73
Year 3 PV (M)73.8576.1378.46
Year 4 PV (M)81.2784.6488.11
Year 5 PV (M)86.7091.2295.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,864.841,961.952,063.06
Equity Value (M)2,222.352,331.472,444.94
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8066.8066.80
Fair Value$33.27$34.90$36.60
Upside / Downside-11.66%-7.33%-2.81%

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