Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.79 - $220.77$141.90
Multi-Stage$115.20 - $126.12$120.56
Blended Fair Value$131.23
Current Price$89.66
Upside46.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.67%4.81%3.303.243.173.092.942.762.592.432.302.18
YoY Growth--2.12%2.01%2.54%5.39%6.35%6.72%6.59%5.68%5.46%5.41%
Dividend Yield--3.47%4.37%4.00%3.96%3.61%3.64%2.73%3.04%2.75%2.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)594.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)415.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.8674.2944.57
Cash Retained (M)178.76178.76178.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.86-74.29-44.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.90104.48134.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.44119.44119.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.871.12
LTM Dividend per Share3.483.483.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.871.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.984.354.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Fair Value$97.79$141.90$220.77
Upside / Downside9.07%58.27%146.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)594.30616.96640.47664.89690.23716.54738.04
Payout Ratio69.92%73.94%77.95%81.97%85.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)415.54456.15499.26545.00593.49644.89682.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.81%3.81%4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)422.22426.32430.43
Year 2 PV (M)427.74436.10444.54
Year 3 PV (M)432.18444.92457.90
Year 4 PV (M)435.62452.82470.52
Year 5 PV (M)438.13459.86482.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,603.7312,179.1412,777.14
Equity Value (M)13,759.6314,399.1615,062.97
Shares Outstanding (M)119.44119.44119.44
Fair Value$115.20$120.56$126.12
Upside / Downside28.49%34.46%40.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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