Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

P.T. Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$936.78 - $1,410.09$1,160.50
Multi-Stage$1,975.43 - $2,174.32$2,072.92
Blended Fair Value$1,616.71
Current Price$1,080.00
Upside49.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.0319.980.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-59.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.70%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,669,386.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,010,762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)533,877.20333,673.25200,203.95
Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.001,658,624.001,658,624.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-533,877.20-333,673.25-200,203.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,124,746.801,324,950.751,458,420.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
LTM Dividend per Share41.9841.9841.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.7097.02102.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Fair Value$936.78$1,160.50$1,410.09
Upside / Downside-13.26%7.45%30.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,669,386.002,635,369.142,601,785.782,568,630.372,535,897.482,503,581.712,578,689.16
Payout Ratio37.86%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,010,762.001,272,671.671,527,742.001,776,104.772,017,889.512,253,223.542,385,287.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)1,177,595.051,189,645.061,201,695.06
Year 2 PV (M)1,308,004.401,334,910.261,362,090.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,407,042.971,450,680.131,495,210.30
Year 4 PV (M)1,479,162.061,540,641.141,604,017.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,528,277.601,608,086.531,691,195.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,658,649.8342,781,905.0044,992,951.63
Equity Value (M)47,558,731.9149,905,868.1252,347,159.46
Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
Fair Value$1,975.43$2,072.92$2,174.32
Upside / Downside82.91%91.94%101.33%

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