Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Premier Marketing Public Company Limited (PM-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.18 - $24.31$18.56
Multi-Stage$28.03 - $30.75$29.36
Blended Fair Value$23.96
Current Price$12.00
Upside99.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.01%0.00%0.600.630.450.550.670.600.701.010.650.71
YoY Growth---4.76%40.00%-18.17%-18.33%12.19%-13.86%-30.83%54.07%-7.58%17.86%
Dividend Yield--5.82%8.87%5.06%5.73%7.69%11.88%8.01%8.32%7.03%7.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)634.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)574.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.8979.3147.58
Cash Retained (M)59.6259.6259.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.89-79.31-47.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)-67.27-19.6812.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)558.12558.12558.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.031.031.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.040.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$14.18$18.56$24.31
Upside / Downside18.18%54.69%102.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)634.46640.38646.36652.39658.48664.62684.56
Payout Ratio90.60%90.48%90.36%90.24%90.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)574.83579.43584.06588.72593.42598.16633.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)539.47544.87550.27
Year 2 PV (M)506.29516.47526.76
Year 3 PV (M)475.14489.55504.25
Year 4 PV (M)445.91464.03482.70
Year 5 PV (M)418.48439.84462.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,256.5313,933.2114,637.24
Equity Value (M)15,641.8416,387.9817,163.28
Shares Outstanding (M)558.12558.12558.12
Fair Value$28.03$29.36$30.75
Upside / Downside133.55%144.69%156.27%

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