Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.00 - $195.98$141.33
Multi-Stage$153.82 - $168.66$161.10
Blended Fair Value$151.21
Current Price$153.65
Upside-1.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.85%3.08%4.033.803.673.583.373.183.062.982.953.04
YoY Growth--6.01%3.48%2.61%6.14%6.09%3.88%2.57%1.02%-2.69%2.04%
Dividend Yield--2.62%2.19%2.52%2.84%2.41%2.29%2.46%3.57%3.25%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,765.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,976.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,789.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,353.002,095.631,257.38
Cash Retained (M)6,789.006,789.006,789.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,353.00-2,095.63-1,257.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,436.004,693.385,531.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,449.782,449.782,449.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.401.922.26
LTM Dividend per Share4.074.074.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.401.922.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.996.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate1.50%2.50%3.50%
Fair Value$104.00$141.33$195.98
Upside / Downside-32.31%-8.02%27.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,765.0017,184.8517,615.2218,056.3618,508.5618,972.0719,541.23
Payout Ratio59.50%65.60%71.70%77.80%83.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,976.0011,273.9412,630.6314,048.2115,528.8617,074.8618,075.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate1.50%2.50%3.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,448.4910,551.4310,654.37
Year 2 PV (M)10,848.7811,063.6011,280.51
Year 3 PV (M)11,182.9111,516.6911,857.05
Year 4 PV (M)11,456.4911,914.6712,386.46
Year 5 PV (M)11,674.7412,261.2712,871.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)321,221.05337,358.93354,138.99
Equity Value (M)376,832.46394,666.58413,188.51
Shares Outstanding (M)2,449.782,449.782,449.78
Fair Value$153.82$161.10$168.66
Upside / Downside0.11%4.85%9.77%

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